Tag Archives: android

Samsung, Apple and Becoming Microsoft

The business insider had a fascinating chart and commentary on the third quarter units shipped of smartphones.  In a nutshell, the third quarter was the first time in recent history that a single android manufacturer shipped more units than Apple.
chart of the day, global smartphone shipments for samsung, nokia, apple, october 2011

The analysis repeatedly describes the trend as ‘worrisome’ for Apple.  Here’s a snippet:

As the history of the tech industry has demonstrated again and again, technology platform markets tend to standardize around a single dominant platform. Although several different platforms can co-exist while a market is developing, eventually a clear leader emerges. And as it does, the leader’s power and “network effects” grow, while the leverage of the smaller platforms diminishes. 

via businessinsider.com
So, the question is:  Who will be the Microsoft of the Smartphone market?  Apple or Samsung?
I suspect that one of the key dynamics  that will effect Apple’s future is it’s cash.  In their 10K, they have $81.5 billion of it.
When Steve Jobs was alive, the investment community was happy to let them hold it.  The feeling was that Steve would put it to work better than they could.  It will be interesting to see if they continue to have such patience with Tim Cook.
At same time, Microsoft has $57.4 billion on its balance sheet so apparently being an emerging mobile platform is better than being a dominant desktop one in today’s market.  Seriously, the most likely explanation is that Microsoft has spent years investing and trying to diversify its market positioning, including a huge and costly bet on online and search.  Apple has yet to seriously start looking at acquisition or other lines of business.  Again it will be interesting to see what Tim Cook does and how much patience the financial community has with him.
Samsung is already a diversified consumer electronics business and Google (the creators of Android) is, of course, a player in the mobile market because they need to find a constructive way to invest their own huge pile of cash generated by their search business.
The product developments are the sexy part of the smartphone market but sometimes, if you want to see where a market is going, you need to follow the money.  In today’s market, its still anyone’s game.

Skype, Microsoft and Fallacy of Mobility

The announcement of Microsoft’s intention to purchase Skype for $8.5 billion has given rise to a frenzy of media activity.

Forrester sees the acquisition as a ‘masterstroke’ as a great move to further strengthen Microsoft’s new Window 7 mobile platform. Om Malik agrees and also thinks that it strengthen Microsoft in the enterprise collaboration market. 

A more common sentiment might be David Pogue at the NewYork Times who wonders aloud if Microsoft will simply shutter Skype in a couple of years. 

Personally, I have moved my family from Microsoft to Skype in the last year for some reasons that are instructive on direction of the market.

My Product Migration

Personally, I had my mother on MSN messenger until recently.

The reason was simple:  She is in the States and I live in London.  

Videoconferencing with the grandchildren is one of the few motivations powerful enough to get my mother to learn new technology.  Microsoft made it easy.  I got her a Microsoft webcam a couple years ago.  It was plug-and-play with Windows and allowed you to login to Messenger at the click of a button.

This all happened before smartphones and mobile internet access changed the game.

Last year, I migrated her to Skype.  Why?

I couldn’t get a MSN messenger client for my iphone, ipad or my linux computers that was reliable.  As a result, we only video-called infrequently since I had to set up a special computer and webcam to talk to my family in the states.  

Skype let’s me video-call my mom from my iphone at the playground so she can see my 2-year-old son on the sliding board.  It might be a free call but its also a priceless one.

The Fallacy of Skype and Mobile

The dangerous fallacy in the limited positive analysis around the Skype / Microsoft acquisition is that it focuses on where Microsoft aspires to be and overlays where Skype is already successful.  

Mobile.  

Indeed, the skype iphone app was the reason why I moved my whole family to the platform.

The problem is that Skype’s success at mobile comes from creating great clients for all type of devices and operating systems.  Can you see Microsoft having the same passion for the Android Skype app that Skype has?  I can’t.  The closer Microsoft integrates Skype into the their operating systems (mobile and desktop) the better chance rival voice-and-video products will have in the marketplace.

Let’s put it another way:  Apple is a far better product company and has a much better eye for consumer tastes but their Apple-only voice-and-video platform, Facetime, is the Zune compared to Skype’s ipod. 

Microsoft already has two voice-and-video products (Messenger and Netmeeting) so buying Skype feels like the start of some hard decisions on the product management side and, unfortunately, I can’t see Skype surviving untouched.  It would be all too easy to destroy Skype without creating a credible iphone / Android competitor.

But, then again, Skype survived Ebay, founder litigation on intellectual property and going private again. That’s only three lives.  Here’s hoping they have nine . . .  

 

Nokia, Apple, Innovation and the Commodity Trap

On the MIX website, Henry Chesbrough has offered an insightful analysis of Nokia’s corporate woes and Steven Elop’s ‘burning platform’ memo.  He writes that Nokia’s problem is far more fundemental than simply needing to improve execution or develop some new handset models.  Nokia has fallen into a Commodity Trap.

Chesbrough explains: 

A commodity trap is a subtle trap. Companies that differentiate their products by building them to be smaller, faster, more powerful and cheaper begin to find that others quickly imitate every new feature that they introduce. The length of time that any given product is attractive in the market begins to decline, as even newer products quickly take over. And with the globalization of manufacturing and even R&D now, skills like total quality management, six sigma, supply chain management and enterprise resource management are now widespread, and known to most everybody.

Nokia is not the first cell phone maker to fall into this trap. Only 7 years ago, Motorola stunned the world with its elegant, sexy Razr phone. This phone was slim, sleek, and definitely cool. Motorola sold more than 50 million of them, and was the world’s #1 handset manufacturer. But Motorola kept trying to come up with even better products, and its next products weren’t any cooler than the Razr, while other makers (including Nokia) soon caught up with cool designs of their own. Today, Motorola is the #7 manufacturer of handsets in the world.

[...]

There is a lesson here for all companies. Whether you make a product or a service, you need to think of your business as a service business. With a service mindset, you will encourage your people to create valuable experiences for your customers. With an open mindset, you will invite many others to add to and build upon your products and services – your platform. If you set out to innovate your services to create new and differentiated customer experiences, you can escape the tyranny of the commodity trap. This is the path to win and sustain leadership in your market.

The Meaning of Words

As much as I love the analysis, I don’t like the words.  

For me, creating a commodity where none previously existed is a source of compeitive advantage, not a negative to be avoided.  The term commodity trap sounds like Nokia is the only active agent in the market but the reality is that other players changed the terms of engagement on them.

Regardless, Nokia has, indeed, missed a trick.  Two tricks actually.  

While it was asleep, contract manufacturers made the fabrication of complex and high-quality products a commodity business.  As Chesbrough correctly notes this trend has eroded Nokia’s competitive advantage and their position in the market.  Any move they make, the ‘fast followers’ in the market can emulate quicker than Nokia can innovate again.  They are building a commodity and they need more than just another great design to escape the commodity end of the market.

Ironically, at the other end of the market, Apple and Android have also commoditized the market, just a different market.

Yes, they are selling premium hardware but the handset market has always been heavily subsidized by telecom providers in exchange for long-term contracts.  The real money in handsets has always been in services.  For a longtime, this has essentially been voice calls but, with the rise of the smart phone, data services are increasing important.  First, Apple and then Android essentially commoditized application development in a way Nokia never managed.  Apple and Android have made the mobile data services market explode.  

By including a usable browser and making app installation plug-and-play, suddenly anyone could build a data service.  There really isn’t that much the iPhone does that you couldn’t achieve on the Nokia N95 but the amount of effort and development pain involved simply made it pointless.  The pain outweighed the utility until Apple made it easier.

So, has Apple really thought of their business like a service, not a commodity?

I don’t think so.  Apple is an incredibly secretive business and is generally dismissive of its customer’s opinions.  They aren’t famous for consulting their customers about product direction or having an open approach to the developers and music publishers in their marketplace.  They are a product company.  They just make great products and even though the products are expensive.  These products completely commoditized the data services market.  Mobile applications became accessible to a mass market. They were no longer the perserve of large corporations.

So, sometimes creating a commodity isn’t a a trap but a disruptive innovation.  Nokia just got the wrong end of the stick.